Weatherius · PHFN-1 Validation

Loading…

Summary

PHFN-1 vs GFS vs ECMWF vs Persistence

Nowcast (0–3 h) — GFS · ECMWF · PHFN-1
Forecast (3 h – 5 days)

Scored from onwards · best_match + ECMWF blend (matches production) · GFS, ECMWF, and 24h-persistence shown as independent baselines

PHFN-7 forecasts remain unchanged. This view tests whether versioned, location-derived surface features explain residual error on the same observation sample used for Best Match.

Advanced location-balanced and confidence diagnostics

Observation-Conditional Extremes

RMSE and Bias grouped by hour of day (UTC) across all lead bins. Reveals systematic daytime/night-time model errors.

Categorical verification of cloud cover using sky condition classes (SKC · FEW · SCT · BKN · OVC). HSS and Gerrity Score replace RMSE here — continuous metrics are invalid for discrete METAR observations.

Manual Pipeline Triggers

Enter your VALIDATION_ADMIN_TOKEN and click a step. Each step may take 30–90 s.


    
Loading…